Amelia Bourdeau , director of foreign exchange at Westpac Institutional Bank, thinks external forces are propping up the euro. "Taking a EURUSD negative view has been frustrating and difficult to time as both the solutions at hand and sovereign bids for EURUSD as a reserve currency hold EURUSD up," she told me. As for alternatives, "a lower Australian dollar for domestic reasons is a story that could continue to play out in the next couple of months and that fits well with a euro-zone risk-averse view," she says. Other experts have become bearish on the New Zealand dollar, she says, though that is not a view Westpac shares - but the kiwi probably bears watching too.
Other experts aren't ready to throw in the towel on euro-dollar. Marc Chandler, chief currency strategist at Brown Brothers Harriman, points out that it is the most widely traded currency pair, giving investors plenty of room to maneuver. And, he told me, "I think euro is breaking down. I look for $1.24 by the end of the summer."
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